Posted by: escott on June 25, 19103 at 10:35:20 In Reply to: Re: .osx bounce & view from Goldman... posted by Salil V Gangal on June 19, 19103 at 22:17:32

Hi Salil....

Well, on the .osx side first, I've been viewing the recent 8% slide in .osx as typical sell-off instigated by standard non-panic manipulation that ordinarily comes about May - in tandem with "shoulder season." Summer is finally here.... literally..... and that may again start to "fuel" concerns about natural gas inventories heading into next winter. (e.g., as hotter weather ordinarily catalyzes heavier demand for natural gas driven electric power.... for a/c, etc.)

But those of us still heavily in .osx land got a pleasant surprise early today - with monster draws in crude levels reported by both API and EIA.... It seems that US import levels of crude are down dramatically even as demand/utilization has been picking up....

so where's that wall of Iraqi crude? Of course, Fox news yesterday was loudly trumpeting the restoration of Iraq's exports from Turkey - e.g., from STORAGE tanks.... ostensibly as first step towards renewed flow from pipelines via Kirkuk through Turkey..... Problem is, Iraq's infrastructure has been so badly mauled (by war AND aftermath of non-security) that any confidence in a respectable supply returning to that line is.... shall we say.... suspect.

As for Iran, I'm still hopefull that George Bush Sr. might get an ear of his son. The neocons are determined to keep them apart. The elder has this to say to Iran in his State of the Union address:

"Goodwill begets goodwill."

The neocons, by contrast, argue: invasion, "liberation," humiliation, restoration of the monarchy produce people who who happily do Amrika's bidding....

As another thought, much of the Arab media (esp. the ones relatively independent from gov't influence) are suggesting yet another wag the dog phenomena at work.... as in George Bush suddenly is in major trouble.... with all the coffins coming home from Iraq.... from Saddam, bin-Laden, and the Taliban being still on the loose. (Hell, we're even now talking with the Pakistani ISI about allowing the Taliban back into Afghanistan's government - pathetic!) Anyway, as that latest rigged Washington Post poll suggested, the American people would support an invasion of Iran IF to stop Iran from getting "the bomb."

So classic political move, you "wag the dog" and change the subject.... and invade (or bomb) an unloved hapless foreign country.... And who the hell will give a hoot if it doesn't help - or if the same people screaming about Iran's bomb (or anything else) are the same liars who brought you the "imminent threat" and the Niger "uranium cakes" supposedly to be found in Iraq....

And that's a part of our world....

Beam me up Scotty....

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